After 3 consecutive months of growth, the housing market appears to have eased a bit in December.
According to the National Association of REALTORS®, December’s Pending Home Sales Index slipped 4 percent from the month prior. The index measures the number of homes under contract to sell nationwide, but not yet sold.
Despite falling below its benchmark “100 value”, December’s Pending Home Sales Index is the reading’s second-highest value since April 2010 — the last month of last year’s home buyer tax credit program.
In other words, the housing market continues to show signs of improvement, propelled by low home prices and the cheapest mortgage rates of all-time.
Freddie Mac’s mortgage rate survey put the 30-year fixed rate mortgage at an average of 3.96% in December — a 75-basis point improvement from December 2010. This helps to make homes more affordable nationwide.
On a regional basis, December’s Pending Home Sales Index varied :
Northeast Region: -3.1 percent from November 2011
Midwest Region : +4.0 percent from November 2011
South Region : -2.6 percent from November 2011
West Region : -11.0 percent from November 2011
But even regional data is only so helpful. Like everything in real estate, data must be local to be relevant.
Throughout the West Region, for example, the U.S. region in which pending home sales fell the most, several states must have performed better than the regional average. And, undoubtedly, there were cities, towns, and neighborhoods that experienced marked market growth.
Unfortunately, the Pending Home Sales Index can’t capture that data. Nor can it identify the markets in which home sales suffered.
For today’s New York home buyers and sellers, therefore, it’s important to understand your local market and the drivers of local activity. Reports like the Pending Home Sales Index can paint a broad picture U.S. housing but for data that matters to you, you’ll want to look local.
For local real estate data, talk to an experienced real estate professional.
Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.
The Fed Funds Rate has been near zero percent since December 2008.
For the third consecutive month, the Fed Funds Rate vote was nearly unanimous. Just one FOMC member dissented in the 9-1 vote, objecting only to the language used in the Fed’s official statement.
In its press release, the Federal Reserve noted that the the U.S. economy has “expanding moderately” since its last meeting in December 2011, adding that the growth is occurring despite “slowing in global growth” — a reference to ongoing economic uncertainty within the Eurozone.
The Federal Reserve expects moderate economic expansion through the next few quarters but is wary of “strains” from global financial markets, and these three threats to the U.S. economy :
The housing sector remains “depressed”
The unemployment rate remains “elevated”
Fixed business investment has “slowed”
On the positive side, the FOMC said that household spending is rising and inflation remains in-check. The group also believes that employment will gradually improve nationwide going forward.
The Federal Reserve neither introduced new economic stimulus, nor discontinued existing market programs.
Immediately following the FOMC’s statement, mortgage markets rallied, pressuring mortgage rates to fall in and around New York.
Mortgage rates remain near all-time lows and, for homeowners willing to pay points plus closing costs, conventional, 30-year fixed rate mortgages can be locked at below 4 percent. If you’re in the process of buying or refinancing a home in CT , it’s a good time to lock a mortgage rate with your lender.
The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is a one-day event slated for March 13, 2012.
The Federal Open Market Committee adjourns from a scheduled 2-day meeting today, its first of 8 scheduled meetings this year.
The FOMC is a designated, rotating, 12-person committee within the Federal Reserve, led by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Members of the FOMC sub-committee are the voting members of the Federal Reserve; the ones that ultimately determine U.S. monetary policy.
The most well-known Federal Reserve monetary policy tool is the central bank’s Fed Funds Rate. The Fed Funds Rate is the prescribed interest rate at which banks borrow money from each other for a period of one night.
The Fed Funds Rate can only be changed by FOMC vote.
For home buyers and would-be refinancing households in New York , it’s important to recognize that the Fed Funds Rate is an interest rate separate and distinct from “mortgage rates”. Mortgage rates are not voted upon by the Federal Reserve. Rather, mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds, a security bought and sold among investors.
Historically, there is little correlation between the Fed Funds Rates and 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates throughout NY. Going back 20 years, the benchmark rates have been separated by as much as 5.29% and have been as near as 0.52%.
The spread has even gone negative, most recently in 1979 and 1981 — a period marked by high inflation.
Today, the separation between the Fed Funds Rate and the average, 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate is roughly 3.60%. Beginning at 12:30 PM ET, however, that spread is expected to change. The FOMC will make its statement to the press at that time, and will release its quarterly forecast to the markets.
As Wall Street reacts to the Fed’s press release and projections, mortgage rates will move.
Investors expect the Fed to vote the Fed Funds Rate unchanged from its current range near 0.000 percent, but are unsure of how the Fed will characterize the U.S. economy. If the Fed speaks optimistically on the economy, stock markets should rise and mortgage bonds should fall, driving mortgage rates higher.
Conversely, if the Fed shows concern for future economic growth, mortgage rates should drop. Either way, today figures to be volatile one for mortgage markets.
When mortgage markets get volatile, the safe play as a rate shopper is to lock your mortgage rate immediately. There too much risk in floating.
The housing market finished 2011 with strength, and is carrying measurable momentum into 2012.
According to data from the National Association of REALTORS®, on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, December’s Existing Home Sales climbed by 120,00 units overall from the month prior on its way to an 11-month high.
An “existing home” is a home that’s been previously occupied; that cannot be considered new construction.
After 4.61 million existing homes were sold in December, there are now just 2.38 million homes for sale nationwide. The last time the national home supply was this sparse was March 2005.
At today’s sales pace, the complete, national home inventory would be exhausted in 6.2 months — the fastest pace since before the recession. A 6.0-month supply is believed to represent a market in balance.
Foreclosures sold at an average discount of 22% to market value
Short sales sold at an average discount of 13% to market value
Together, foreclosures and short sales accounted for 32% of all home sales
Clearly, “distressed homes” remain a large part of the U.S. housing market.
Furthermore, in its report, the real estate trade group also noted that one-third of homes under contract to sell nationwide succumbed to contract failure last month. That’s up from 9% one year ago.
Contract failure occurs for a multitude of reasons, most notably homes appraising for less than the purchase price; the buyer’s failure to achieve a mortgage approval; and, insurmountable home inspection issues. December’s high failure rate underscores the importance of getting pre-approved as a buyer, and of buying homes in “good condition”.
For today’s home buyer in New York , December’s Existing Home Sales figures may be construed as a “buy signal”. Home supplies are dropping and buyer demand is rising. This is the basic recipe for higher home prices ahead.
If your 2012 plans call for buying a home, consider that home values throughout NY are expected to rise as the year progresses. The best values of the year may be the ones secured this winter.
The outlook for the U.S. economy improved last week, taking the mortgage bond market with it. For the first time this year, conforming mortgage rates rose throughout CT from one week to the next.
In addition, European leaders moved closer to a final resolution on the Greek sovereign debt default situation.
Overall, the action gave investors reason for optimism in the U.S. economy, and economies abroad. This drew money away from the U.S. mortgage bond market, which caused mortgage rates to rise.
Freddie Mac reports the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage slipping 0.01 percentage points to 3.88% nationwide, with an accompanying 0.8 discount points and complete set of closing costs. These costs are slightly higher as compared to the week prior.
1 discount point is equal to one percent of the borrowed loan size.
Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage rate survey puts the conforming 30-year fixed rate mortgage under 4 percent for 7 consecutive weeks.
This week, mortgage rates may rise; the week is anchored by a 2-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Whenever the FOMC meets, mortgage rates can be volatile.
The Ben Bernanke-led FOMC is not expected to raise the Fed Funds Rate from its current target range near 0.000 percent, but it’s not what the Fed does that can change mortgage rates as much as it is what the Fed says.
After its 2-day meeting concludes Wednesday, the FOMC will issue its customary statement to the markets, to be followed by a press conference led by Chairman Bernanke. Wall Street will watch the press release and conference for clues about the Fed’s next steps and its outlook for the U.S. economy.
If the Fed indicates that the economy is growing, mortgage rates in New York are likely to rise. Conversely, if the Fed indicates that the economy is slowing, mortgage rates are likely to fall.
Other factors influencing mortgage rates this week include the President’s annual State of the Union address (Tuesday), the Pending Home Sales Index (Wednesday) and New Homes Sales data for December (Thursday).
Mortgage rates remain low but may not stay that way. If you’re looking for the best rates of the year, this week may be your chance.
For the fourth straight month, the National Association of Homebuilders reports an increase in its Housing Market Index. The index climbed 4 points to 25 this month – its second four-point gain since October.
With home sales activity increasing across all four regions, the monthly HMI has now nearly doubled in value since June 2011.
The HMI is now at a 55-month high.
The Housing Market Index itself is a composite reading; the result of three home builder surveys sent by the National Association of Homebuilders to its members monthly. Home builders report back on current single-family home sales volume; projected single-family home sales volume for the next 6 months; and current buyer “foot traffic”.
The NAHB then results compiles the surveys into a single reading.
Current Single-Family Sales : 25 (+3 from December)
Projected Single-Family Sales : 29 (+3 from December)
Buyer Foot Traffic : 21 (+3 from December)
The Housing Market Index corroborates recent U.S. government data that suggests housing is mending in NY. Both Housing Starts and New Home Sales have out-performed expectations of late, it’s been shown, and the stock of new homes for sale nationwide is dwindling.
All of this, of course, is happening as demand from buyers heats up. Foot traffic through builder homes is higher than it’s been in more than 3 years, say the builders — a time period that includes the duration of the 2010 home buyer tax credit.
It’s no surprise, therefore, that builders expect a strong 2012.
Jobs data is improving, mortgage rates remain low, and housing momentum is building. For home buyers in New York , however, it may spell higher home prices ahead. Big demand and small supply creates scarcity and scarcity correlates to rising prices.
If you’re shopping new homes, the best “deal” may be the one you find today.
Foreclosure filings are fewer these days, according to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac.
In December 2011, the number of foreclosure filings nationwide fell 9 percent from the month prior. Not since November 2007 has foreclosure activity been this sparse across the country.
The drop does not appear to be seasonal, either.
Last month’s foreclosure filings were down 20 percent from December 2010 with “foreclosure filing” defined to include any one of the following foreclosure-related events : (1) The serving of a default notice, (2) A scheduled home auction, or (3) A bank repossession. As a result of a unexpectedly strong year-end, 2011′s annual foreclosure rate was the lowest in 4 years.
One reason why the year may have closed so strongly is that Nevada, California, Michigan and Arizona — four states typically associated with high rates of foreclosures — each posted big drops in foreclosure filings between November and December, plus double-digit drops between December 2010 and December 2011.
In fact, among the country’s top 10 states for foreclosure activity, nine showed an annual foreclosure filing reduction.
Only Delaware worsened.
It’s also noteworthy that just 4 states accounted for half of last month’s total foreclosure filings.
California : 25.8 percent of all foreclosure filings
Florida : 12.0 percent of all foreclosure filings
Michigan : 6.4 percent of all foreclosure filings
Illinois : 6.2 percent of all foreclosure filings
Foreclosures are heavily concentrated, in other words. By contrast, the last 1% of activity is spread across 14 states.
As a New York home buyer — first-timer or investor — foreclosures can be a great way to find value.
According to the National Association of REALTORS®, distressed homes typically sell at “deep discounts“ as compared to like, non-distressed homes. However, when you buy a foreclosure home from a bank, it’s different from buying a home from a “person”. Purchase contract negotiations are different and months may pass before your closing is approved.
If you’re buying foreclosure, therefore, seek the help of a professional real estate agent. Real estate agents have experience working in the process-heavy world of foreclosures and can help you come out ahead.
Mortgage markets gained last week, picking up momentum into the weekend. Global demand for mortgage-backed bonds helped push mortgage rates to new lows, and closing costs eased somewhat, too.
According to Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage rate survey, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate fell to 3.89% nationwide. In order to get access to 3.89% mortgage rates, Freddie Mac said, mortgage applicants should expect to pay a full set of closing costs plus 0.7 discount points.
1 discount point is equal to 1 percent of your loan size.
Loans with “low closing costs” or “no closing costs” will be at higher rates than Freddie Mac’s published, average rate.
The biggest reason why mortgage rates fell last week is because — once more — concerns over European sovereign debt resurfaced on Wall Street. This has been an ongoing story for more than a year, and one that won’t likely end soon.
Several Eurozone nations saw their respective credit ratings downgraded last week, a move that sparked safe haven buying of U.S. mortgage bonds. France was stripped of its top credit rating. Slovakia, Italy and Austria were each downgraded, too.
Markets were also influenced by a conflict between Greece’s creditor banks and the nation-state’s government. The breakdown in talks increases the likelihood of the Eurozone’s first sovereign default.
Meanwhile, domestically, in-line Retail Sales figures and rising consumer confidence helped to prop up the U.S. dollar, a move that’s linked to lower mortgage rates.
This week, the markets were closed for the federal holiday Monday, and re-open Tuesday without much data on which to trade. Several inflationary reports are set for release including the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index; and, in housing-related data, we’ll see the Housing Starts report and Existing Home Sales figures for December.
Expect mortgage rates to follow the Eurozone story this week. Pessimism and weak data will be good for mortgage rates in CT and nationwide. Strength will lead mortgage rates higher.
If you’re still floating a mortgage rate or have otherwise yet to lock, mortgage rates are lower than they’ve been in history. It’s an ideal time to make aan interest rate commitment.
Will your home gain value over the next 12 months? Nobody can know for sure, of course, but should recent housing trends continue, there’s concrete cause for optimism.
The housing economy has suffered since 2007, knocking home values down nearly 20% nationwide. And while some areas have fared better as compared to others but, in general, home values are down.
Mortgage rates are down, too, and that’s good news for buyers in New York. The combination of low rates and low prices has led home affordability to an all-time high. As you’ll hear in this 4-minute interview with NBC’s The Today Show, carrying a mortgage costs 25% less per month as compared to just 3 years ago.
Some other notes from the interview include :
There are more buyers out looking for homes today, which leads to more sales
The housing market is expected to get gradually better, month-by-month, in 2012
Foreclosures will continue to be a big part of the housing market
With housing supplies shrinking, buyers throughout NJ may find their best “deals” today — before the Spring Buying Season begins in February.
However, we can’t forget that housing markets are local — not national. Each town and neighborhood has its own market drivers and prices where you live may have already started to climb.
For accurate, up-to-date data on the housing market, talk with a local real estate agent.
The Federal Reserve has released the minutes from its most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The Fed Minutes are a detailed meeting recap; the companion piece to the more brief, more well-known press release.
As a comparison, the minutes of the last FOMC meeting contained 60 paragraphs and 7,027 words. The post-meeting press release was just 5 paragraphs and 382 words.
December’s Fed Minutes shows Fed members with a positive, cautious, take on the economy.
Recent data suggests that the U.S. economy is expanding, the Fed said, but “strains” in global financial markets pose “significant risks” to the downside. This tell us that the Fed believes its economy-stimulating programs are working, but that officials remained concerned by events in the Eurozone.
The U.S. economy could be impacted by fallout.
Other meeting consensus included :
On growth : The economy is expanding, despite slowing in “global economic growth”
On housing : Data suggests the “depressed” market “could be improving”
On inflation : Prices are stable, and remain within tolerance levels
The Fed’s analysis was of little surprise to Wall Street, and going forward, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke wants to keep it that way. The Fed Minutes contained a passage regarding market communication, and how the Fed will be more pro-active about it in the future.
With the release of its minutes, in a section called “Market Policy Communications”, the Federal Reserve showed its plans to release 4 times annually its economic forecasts, and plans for the Fed Funds Rate. This signals in a shift in Federal Reserve transparency.
The Federal Reserve will begin including the forecast in its economic projections beginning after its next policy meeting, January 24-25, 2012.
Mortgage rates in NJ were little changed after the release of the Fed Minutes.
Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.
The housing market finished 2011 with strength, and is carrying measurable momentum into 2012. 
The outlook for the U.S. economy improved last week, taking the mortgage bond market with it. For the first time this year, conforming mortgage rates rose throughout CT from one week to the next.
Mortgage markets gained last week, picking up momentum into the weekend. Global demand for mortgage-backed bonds helped push mortgage rates to new lows, and closing costs eased somewhat, too.
The Federal Reserve has released the minutes from its most recent 